← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 38% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 25' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Geoffrey Jourdren · Dijon |
| 58' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ryad Boudebouz · Montpellier |
| 68' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Dijon |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Anthony Vanden Borre · Dijon |
| 84' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yohann Rivière · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1553.00 | 2649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1456.01 | 1544.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.18 | -27.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.29 | 48.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.71 | 3.14 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |