← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 40% | 45% | 2.46 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Franck Béria · Lille OSC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 43' | 🟨 | Franck Béria · Lille OSC |
| 43' | 🟥 | Franck Béria · Lille OSC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 72' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 78' | 🟨 | Léo Lacroix · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 80' | ⚽ | Renato Civelli · Lille OSC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Renato Civelli · Lille OSC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nolan Roux · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2490.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1641.52 | 1589.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.29 | -37.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.90 | 52.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |