← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 59% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.02 | fair |
| Metz win | 17% | 19% | 5.78 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Mevlüt Erdinç · Metz |
| 46' | 🟨 | Milan Biševac · Metz |
| 67' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Montpellier |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gauthier Hein · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 2642.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1559.90 | 1394.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.54 | 33.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 59.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |