← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 42% | 23% | 2.35 | fair |
| Metz win | 30% | 13% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 65% | 3.44 | value: +122% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 56' | 🟨 | Simon Falette · Metz |
| 69' | 🟨 | Franck Signorino · Metz |
| 71' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Bordeaux |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Isaac Thelin · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 295.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1592.03 | 1641.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.63 | 9.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.30 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 26.50 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |