← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 56% | 63% | 1.74 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.96 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 19% | 19% | 5.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Morgan Sanson · Montpellier |
| 8' | 🟥 | Morgan Poaty · Montpellier |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mathieu Deplagne · Montpellier |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 42' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 71' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 75' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 295.00 | 2639.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1662.59 | 1570.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.19 | -4.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.50 | — |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |