← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 42% | 42% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Nancy win | 26% | 28% | 3.76 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| coach days | 264.00 | 1086.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.00 |
| 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1540.40 | 1470.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.74 | -18.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |