← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Tue, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 43% | 51% | 2.30 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.06 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 25% | 22% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Marko Baša · Lille OSC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Éric Bauthéac · Lille OSC |
| 66' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 324.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1602.41 | 1546.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.21 | 24.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.50 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |