← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 56% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
| Bastia win | 16% | 20% | 6.01 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jean-Louis Leca · Bastia |
| 29' | 🟨 | Gilles Cioni · Bastia |
| 65' | 🟨 | Oussama Tannane · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lenny Nangis · Bastia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 89' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Bastia |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 2483.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1706.37 | 1609.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.05 | 25.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.44 | 57.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.86 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |