← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 45% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.36 | value: +7% |
| OGC Nice win | 26% | 24% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ryad Boudebouz · Montpellier |
| 77' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · OGC Nice |
| 85' | ⚽ | Younès Belhanda · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 2636.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1570.84 | 1634.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.58 | 6.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.25 | 71.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.83 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.25 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.25 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |