← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 50% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
| Metz win | 23% | 18% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Cheick Doukouré · Metz |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mevlüt Erdinç · Metz |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 39' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Dijon |
| 51' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Vincent Ruefli · Dijon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Cheick Doukouré · Metz |
| 59' | 🟥 | Cheick Doukouré · Metz |
| 69' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 89' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 1539.00 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1562.72 | 1591.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.33 | 34.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.25 | 74.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.50 | 39.25 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 3.75 |
| squad age | 28.69 | 26.53 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |