← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 46% | 50% | 2.12 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
| Caen win | 25% | 22% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Gelson Fernandes · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Yoann Gourcuff · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Romain Genevois · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sanjin Prcić · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| coach days |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 72.00 |
| 2629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1623.20 | 1618.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.40 | 35.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.67 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |