← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 57% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
| Metz win | 17% | 18% | 5.82 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mevlüt Erdinç · Metz |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
| 26' | 🟨 | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mevlüt Erdinç · Metz |
| 58' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 65' | 🟨 | Guido Milan · Metz |
| 76' | 🟨 | Oswaldo Vizcarrondo · Nantes |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Mevlüt Erdinç · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 72.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1572.90 | 1570.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.65 | 20.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.50 | 74.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 39.33 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.50 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 3.67 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 26.58 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |