← Ligue 1 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 20% | 22% | 4.80 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.