← Ligue 1 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 67% | 62% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.88 | value: +23% |
| FC Lorient win | 13% | 13% | 7.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.