← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 37% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 37% | 34% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · Wolfsburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Adam Daghim · Wolfsburg |
| 37' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Koulierakis · Wolfsburg |
| 57' | ⚽ | Abdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Nikola Vasilj · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Dženan Pejčinović · Wolfsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Abdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kento Shiogai · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 684.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1581.85 | 1627.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.52 | 7.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 25.39 |
| state index | -0.97 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.57 |