← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 59% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alexander Prass · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kevin Diks · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 89' | 🟨 | Shuto Machino · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robin Hack · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1080.00 | 561.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1670.77 | 1795.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.62 | 22.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| league points | 35.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | -1.07 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.74 |