← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 53% | 44% | 1.80 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.33 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 71% | 1.29 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Chema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart |
| 27' | 🟨 | Chema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart |
| 47' | 🟨 | Farès Chaïbi · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aurèle Amenda · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Burkardt · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Burkardt · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 1141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1719.84 | 1848.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.62 | 13.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 1.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.16 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 2.25 |