← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 82% | 87% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 10% | 9.00 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 8% | 3% | 12.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −2.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| FC Bayern München −2.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85% | 76% | 1.11 | fair |
| Under | 15% | 24% | 6.50 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 13' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 18' | ⚽ | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 22' | ⚽ | Tom Bischof · FC Bayern München |
| 34' | 🟨 | Joel Schmied · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 69' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · FC Bayern München |
| 83' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 684.00 | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.04 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| elo | 2117.21 | 1614.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.12 | -7.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.56 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| league points | 86.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.61 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | 0.97 |
| solidity v1 | -1.77 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 26.39 |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.26 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 2.12 |