← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 47% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| Heidenheim win | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 66% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 10' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | ⚽ | Arijon Ibrahimović · Heidenheim |
| 30' | 🟨 | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 37' | 🟨 | Budu Zivzivadze · Heidenheim |
| 55' | 🟨 | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 374.00 | 6826.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1633.81 | 1587.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.95 | 42.43 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| league points | 32.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 27.10 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.54 | 1.75 |