← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, May 10, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 43% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| SC Freiburg +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 16' | ⚽ | Igor Matanović · SC Freiburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fabio Baldé · Hamburger SV |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Igor Matanović · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 555.00 | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1634.43 | 1788.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.42 | -8.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -1.67 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 28.47 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 2.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.29 |