← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schröder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 47% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| VfB Stuttgart −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 70% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Aleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 5' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 58' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Exequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1134.00 | 493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1832.91 | 1899.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.12 | 20.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | 1.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 58.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 2.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 27.14 |
| state index | 0.49 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.94 |