β Bundesliga 2025-26 Β· Sat, May 2, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 48% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Augsburg β0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| SV Werder Bremen β0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand