← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 36% | 34% | 2.60 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 36% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 33' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Diogo Leite · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jahmai Simpson-Pusey · 1. FC Köln |
| 61' | ⚽ | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 73' | ⚽ | Tom Rothe · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marvin Schwäbe · 1. FC Köln |
| 89' | ⚽ | Livan Burcu · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Livan Burcu · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |
| coach days |
| 31.00 |
| 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1560.95 | 1578.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.95 | 14.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -1.82 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.50 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.39 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 2.50 |