← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 44% | 37% | 2.15 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 33% | 37% | 2.88 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.10 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 66% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand