← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 76% | 83% | 1.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 11% | 4% | 9.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −2 | 52% | 1.85 |
| FC Bayern München −2 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79% | 75% | 1.20 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Heidenheim |
| 31' | ⚽ | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · FC Bayern München |
| 44' | 🟨 | Diant Ramaj · Heidenheim |
| 44' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 57' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Heidenheim |
| 85' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 670.00 | 6818.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| elo | 2128.38 | 1578.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.12 | 39.81 |
| eye test v1 | 2.30 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 82.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.69 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 27.62 |
| state index | 1.91 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 3.17 | 1.56 |