← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schröder, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 57% | 53% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +8% |
| Hamburger SV win | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand