← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 49% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 34% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln |
| 52' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 77' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Janis Blaswich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 359.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1637.52 | 1880.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.36 | -9.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 31.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 1.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.17 | 27.60 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 2.24 |