← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 68% | 73% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 14% | 9% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Augsburg −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 35 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand