← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 44% | 38% | 2.15 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alexander Prass · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund |
| 87' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samuele Inacio · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| coach days |
| 533.00 |
| 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.35 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1709.85 | 1852.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.14 | 14.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 51.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 1.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 27.59 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.50 |