← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 17, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 38% | 46% | 2.45 | value: +13% |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 33% | 26% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 69' | ⚽ | Karol Mets · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Andreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tomoya Ando · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 2 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 655.00 |
| 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1549.49 | 1583.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.97 | 17.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.98 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.50 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.66 | 2.11 |