← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 74% | 61% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 25% | 6.00 | value: +51% |
| Hamburger SV win | 11% | 13% | 9.00 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Angelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart |
| 24' | 🟨 | Chema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart |
| 32' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 56' | ⚽ | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV |
| 86' | ⚽ | Bilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1107.00 | 527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1834.33 | 1645.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.83 | -0.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 53.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 26.39 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 2.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.36 |