← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 40% | 45% | 2.35 | value: +6% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 24' | 🟥 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen |
| 78' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jahmai Simpson-Pusey · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amos Pieper · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Mio Backhaus · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 346.00 |
| 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1569.05 | 1614.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | 16.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.56 |