← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 5, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Florian Exner, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 49% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 51% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 49% | 2.30 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand