← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 65% | 75% | 1.45 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 15% | 8% | 6.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 67% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Jonas Wind · Wolfsburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 31' | ⚽ | Joakim Mæhle · Wolfsburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Eriksen · Wolfsburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Koulierakis · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 71' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Maza · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 458.00 |
| 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1812.57 | 1562.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | -34.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 46.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -1.28 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.18 |