← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 40% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 33% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0 | 55% | 1.70 |
| FC Augsburg +0 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Arthur Chaves · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Philip Otele · Hamburger SV |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Hamburger SV |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fabian Rieder · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 64' | 🟥 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cedric Zesiger · FC Augsburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Keven Schlotterbeck · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 519.00 |
| 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1599.05 | 1603.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.71 | 0.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 30.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 13.83 | 12.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -1.73 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.86 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.71 |