← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 62% | 73% | 1.53 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.75 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 18% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg +1.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| FC Bayern München +1.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg |
| 46' | ⚽ | Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Michael Olise · FC Bayern München |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tom Bischof · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Atubolu · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lennart Karl · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tom Bischof · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lennart Karl |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Europa-Park-Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 642.00 |
| 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1698.84 | 2048.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.56 | 17.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 2.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 37.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 91.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 12.88 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 2.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 3.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.59 | 2.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 3.58 |