← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 22, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 48% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | ⚽ | Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart |
| 31' | ⚽ | Nikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart |
| 57' | ⚽ | Fabian Rieder · FC Augsburg |
| 58' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nikolas Nartey · VfB Stuttgart |
| 68' | 🟨 | Chema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart |
| 71' | ⚽ | Anton Kade · FC Augsburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · VfB Stuttgart |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · FC Augsburg |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 445.00 | 1086.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1677.82 | 1836.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.10 | -7.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 26.50 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.61 |