← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 66% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 14% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Philip Otele · Hamburger SV |
| 38' | ⚽ | Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 68' | 🟨 | Philip Otele · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | William Mikelbrencis · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund |
| 78' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.89 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 413.00 |
| 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1847.73 | 1601.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.40 | -1.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 58.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.17 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 0.93 |