← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 60% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +6% |
| Heidenheim win | 19% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Heidenheim +1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 35' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 39' | 🟨 | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Hennes Behrens · Heidenheim |
| 63' | 🟨 | Luca Kerber · Heidenheim |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Pieringer · Heidenheim |
| 74' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Maza · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Marvin Pieringer |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jarell Quansah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrian Beck · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 6776.00 |
| 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1478.30 | 1819.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.10 | 4.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 14.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.48 |
| state index | -1.20 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.72 |