← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 84' | ⚽ | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟥 | Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rocco Reitz · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 324.00 |
| 1024.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1564.67 | 1612.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.48 | 0.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 25.55 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.32 |