← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 32% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | ⚽ | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.91 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 498.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1652.29 | 1614.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.33 | -22.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.85 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 24.51 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.10 |