← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 39% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Niklas Stark · SV Werder Bremen |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Derrick Köhn · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 19' | 🟥 | András Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 31' | ⚽ | Olivier Deman · SV Werder Bremen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Keke Topp · SV Werder Bremen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Leopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 79' | 🟨 | Julián Malatini · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrice Čović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadion An der Alten Försterei |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 462.00 | 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1668.55 | 1669.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.95 | -14.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.45 |