← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Florian Exner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 37% | 40% | 2.55 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | — · Wolfsburg |
| -5' | 🟨 | Fabio Baldé · Hamburger SV |
| 20' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Eriksen · Wolfsburg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · Wolfsburg |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jesper Lindstrøm · Wolfsburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jonas Adjei Adjetey · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 218.00 |
| 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1578.21 | 1593.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.64 | 13.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -1.79 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.01 | — |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.24 |