← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 6, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schröder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 78% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +11% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 11% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach −2 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Bayern München −2 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 72% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Konrad Laimer · FC Bayern München |
| 55' | 🟥 | Rocco Reitz · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nicolas Jackson · FC Bayern München |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · FC Bayern München |
| 89' | ⚽ | Wael Mohya · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 613.00 | 1009.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| elo | 2097.63 | 1666.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.16 | -1.90 |
| eye test v1 | 2.63 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 63.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.52 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.38 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.42 | 26.27 |
| state index | 1.83 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 3.05 | 1.31 |