← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 57% | 49% | 1.67 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 22% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 28% | 4.50 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Bayern München +0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 67% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand