← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 56% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Heidenheim +0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Bilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart |
| 5' | ⚽ | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 20' | ⚽ | Eren Dinkçi · Heidenheim |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Arijon Ibrahimović · Heidenheim |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tim Siersleben · Heidenheim |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sirlord Conteh · Heidenheim |
| 88' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days |
| 6749.00 |
| 1058.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1491.70 | 1810.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.95 | 18.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 1.36 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.25 |
| state index | -0.88 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 2.05 |