← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 49% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 3.90 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| RB Leipzig −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rômulo · RB Leipzig |
| 39' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig |
| 41' | 🟨 | Castello Lukeba · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Rômulo · Borussia Dortmund |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luca Reggiani · Borussia Dortmund |
| 69' | 🟨 | Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fábio Silva · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Raum · RB Leipzig |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Fábio Silva · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 357.00 | 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1823.34 | 1929.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.70 | 11.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 3.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 0.99 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.05 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.73 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.96 |