← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 87% | 83% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 12% | 12.00 | value: +41% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 5% | 5% | 19.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt −3 | 52% | 1.85 |
| FC Bayern München −3 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 81% | 66% | 1.17 | fair |
| Under | 19% | 34% | 5.00 | value: +70% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand