← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 20, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Robin Braun, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 45% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Silas · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | ⚽ | Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Hamburger SV |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kacper Potulski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Mewa Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 234.00 | 476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.33 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1725.99 | 1649.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.59 | 33.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.50 | 27.12 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.32 | 1.49 |