← Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 63% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +11% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 18% | 16% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| 1. FC Köln −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 63% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | 🟨 | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | MHPArena |
| coach days | 1050.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1787.20 | 1579.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.42 | 5.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.30 |